RT Journal Article
T1 A Mathematical Model for COVID-19 with Variable Transmissibility and Hospitalizations: A Case Study in Paraguay.
A1 Sauer, Carlos
A1 Pérez Estigarribia, Pastor Enmanuel
A1 Grillo, Sebastián Alberto
A1 Segovia Cabrera, Leticia
A1 García Torres, Miguel
A1 Gaona, Carlos
A1 Vázquez Noguera, José Luis
A1 Sequera Buzarquis, Víctor Guillermo
A1 Irala, Sandra
A1 Pedrozo, Maria Esther
A1 De los Santos Núñez, Eduardo Antonio
A2 Universidad Nacional de Asunción - Facultad Politécnica
A2 Universidad Nacional de Asunción - Facultad de Ciencias Médicas
A2 Universidad Católica "Nuestra Señora de la Asunción" (PY)
A2 Universidad Nacional de Asunción - Facultad de Ingeniería
AB Forecasting the dynamics of the number of cases with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a given population is a challenging task due to behavioural changes which occur over short periods. Planning of hospital resources and containment measures in the near term require a scenario analysis and the use of predictive models to gain insight into possible outcomes for each scenario. In this paper, we present the SEIR-H epidemiological model for the spread dynamics in a given population and the impact of COVID-19 in the local health system. It was developed as an extension of the classic SEIR model to account for required hospital resources and behavioural changes of the population in response to containment measures. Time-varying parameters such as transmissibility are estimated using Bayesian methods, based on the database of reported cases with a moving time window strategy. The assessment of the model offers reasonable results with estimated parameters and simulations, reflecting the observed dynamics in Paraguay. The proposed model can be used to simulate future scenarios and possible effects of containment strategies, to guide the public institution response based on the available resources in the local health system.
YR 2021
FD 2021
LK http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14066/3801
UL http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14066/3801
LA eng
NO CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología
DS MINDS@UW
RD 29-abr-2024