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Power Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning under Uncertainty considering Flexibility in Generation Investments

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URI
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14066/3328
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Author(s)
Blanco Bogado, Gerardo AlejandroCONACYT Authority; Arevalo Gonzalez, Mario SalomonCONACYT Authority; Ríos, Daniel; Baum Ramos, Gabriel FernandoCONACYT Authority
Date of publishing
2017
Type of publication
research article
Subject(s)
FLEXIBILITY
INTEGRATED PLANNING
LEAST SQUARE MONTE CARLO
REAL OPTION
REGULATION
STOCHASTIC SIMULATION
UNCERTAINTY
VALUATION
ENERGIA ELECTRICA
 
Abstract
The process of liberalization of power markets has led to a paradigm shift in the joint expansion planning of the generation and transmission segments. The assessment of this problem is even more complex when considering the uncertainties that usually determine the long-term evolution of the system. Moreover, and from the point of view of regulators and policy makers, an optimal assessment is of great interest because the lack of coordination between the two types of investment can jeopardize competition and efficiency in the whole electricity sector. In this regard, the literature suggests the use of holistic approaches, which necessarily evaluate the risks associated with the coordination of investments in the power system, in order to allow regulators to identify an efficient investment alternative, considering scenarios in which the uncertain variables evolve unfavorably. In this context, this paper test a method to assess the joint expansion planning of the generation and transmission segments, considering the inherent flexibility of generation investments, using the Real Options Valuation approach, calculated with the Least Squares Monte Carlo. In order to validate this method, a case study has been simulated. It is shown that the consideration of investments’ flexibility allows increasing the system-wide social benefit through the coordinated planning of the generation and transmission segments.
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